The world economy is no longer multipolar, but clearly tends towards a bipolar one following the global trade war launched by Donald Trump, with a major confrontation between US and China. The EU is neither a pole, nor a commercial power, but a very open market, only governed by competition, lagging behind in the high tech, with a manufacturing base deeply affected. For the future, the four European scenarios presented here are neither equally likely nor equally desirable. Nor do they fit within the same time horizon.

The first scenario reflects the continuation of the fragmentation of the EU, with its inability to solve its problems of institutional inconsistencies and to overcome its divergences of economic interests and political orientation. The fear of breakup leads to a soft compromise with weak positions facing the US-China conflict, a de facto alignment on the US pole, slow growth, and a downward revision of environment policy. The second scenario describes how protectionist measures can be presented as an answer to the blockages in the previous scenario. It could be settled in a limited way or in a broader perspective with a policy of disobedience towards the EU treaties and a greater break with the neo-liberal model. The third scenario corresponds to the federalist trend which appears as a logical response to the inconsistencies of the current EU. But the resistance to such a project remains high.  The fourth scenario is more optimistic, based on the emergence of a new multilateralism centered on the necessity of an environmental policy considered in its global dimension with a relaunch of international monetary cooperation. Though this scenario is likely to be more on the long term, it could happen after a chaotic period following the outbreak of a financial and economic crisis.